Latino Voters Shift Away From Trump Ahead of Midterms
The Latino voters who helped return Donald Trump to the White House two years ago are now drifting away from him and the Republican Party, new polling shows — a shift that could decide control of Congress in the Nov. 3 midterms.
In Casa Grande, Arizona, 28-year-old maintenance technician Chris Martinez says he feels duped by his 2024 vote. He backed Trump expecting a thriving economy and no wars. Instead, high gas prices forced him to return one of his vehicles to the lender, he moved his grocery shopping to a discount store, and he has watched the United States spend months in conflict with Iran.
“He’s doing nothing for us, to benefit us,” Martinez said. “I got duped and I feel like a dummy.”
He said he went “right for a while, but I’m back to the middle” — and he is not sure he will vote at all in the midterms.
Polls Show a Sharp Reversal Among Latino Voters
Two new national surveys show the reversal clearly. An NBC News/Telemundo poll found Latino voters favor Democratic control of Congress by 59% to 35%. A CBS News/YouGov survey found nearly the same result, with Hispanic likely voters backing Democratic House candidates 60% to 39%.
The turn is sharpest among Latino men, the group that delivered one of Trump’s most important gains in 2024. After Hillary Clinton won Latino men by 31 points in 2016 and Joe Biden carried them by 23 points in 2020, Trump flipped the margin and won them by 10 points. NBC now finds Latino men preferring Democratic control of Congress by 53% to 39%.
An Equis survey of 1,800 registered Latino voters, conducted Sept. 23 through Oct. 2, found a 35-point deficit for Republicans. Seventy-six percent disapprove of Trump’s handling of the cost of living, which 52% named as their top issue. Democrats lead Republicans 54% to 33% on which party voters trust more on the economy — a 21-point advantage, up from just 7 points in February.
The House Majority Runs Through Latino Districts
The path to a U.S. House majority runs through heavily Latino districts in states such as Arizona, Colorado and Texas, where Democrats are counting on disaffected Trump supporters to swing back their way. It is unclear, however, whether Democrats have sealed the deal with voters who lack strong allegiance to either party.
Casa Grande, the town of 70,000 where Martinez lives, sits at a crossroads between Phoenix and Tucson. Much of the town lies at the northern tip of Arizona’s 6th Congressional District, historically one of the most closely matched in the country. Republican Juan Ciscomani is seeking a third term there; two years ago he won by 2.5 percentage points while Trump carried the district by less than 1 point.
Republicans built parts of their 2026 strategy, including newly drawn House districts in Texas and Florida, on the assumption that Trump’s gains with Latino voters would hold. If the drift continues, those calculations get a lot riskier.
Source: Associated Press