Trump Approval Rating Underwater in Michigan Polls

More than half of Michigan voters disapprove of the job President Donald Trump is doing, according to new polling in the battleground state, and the president’s standing is shaping every major race on the ballot a week before the midterm elections. The trump approval rating in Michigan is underwater by a wide margin in multiple surveys, and the latest numbers suggest that the president, rather than any candidate, has become the central figure in the state’s elections.

The newest survey, from the Glengariff Group, found Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leading Republican Mike Rogers in the race for the United States Senate, and it found that the voters who have not yet made up their minds are overwhelmingly voters who disapprove of the president. A Marist poll released earlier in October found Trump’s approval in Michigan at 41 per cent, with 57 per cent disapproving, and a national tracking survey found the state giving the president a net approval rating of minus 27 points. Taken together, the polls describe an electorate that has largely made up its mind about the president, and that is voting accordingly.

The findings matter beyond Michigan. The state is one of the most closely watched battlegrounds in the country, and its Senate and governor races will help decide the balance of power in Washington. The midterm elections on Tuesday, November 3, will determine control of Congress for the next two years, and Michigan’s results will be read as a verdict on the president’s second term. The polls suggest that the verdict, at least in Michigan, is negative.

The Numbers: A Majority Disapproves

The headline figure in the Michigan polling is consistent across surveys: more than half of the state’s voters disapprove of the president’s job performance. The Marist poll, conducted from September 24 to 27 among about 1,235 registered Michigan voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points, put Trump’s approval at 41 per cent and his disapproval at 57 per cent. The survey was released in early October, and its findings have been reinforced by every poll since.

A separate national tracking survey, the Civiqs state-by-state tracker reported by USA Today on October 23, found Trump with a negative net approval rating in most states, including Michigan at minus 27 points. The same tracker found his approval under water in Texas at minus 21 points and even in historically Republican Kansas at minus 1 point, while only eight states gave him a positive rating: Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming. Wyoming was his strongest state, with a net approval rating of plus 14 points, while Montana and South Dakota were evenly divided, with 46 per cent approving and 46 per cent disapproving.

The Detroit Free Press reported earlier Civiqs readings for Michigan that told the same story. A survey compiled on September 22 found 58 per cent of Michigan voters disapproving of the president’s job performance and 36 per cent approving, and a survey compiled on October 5 found 60 per cent disapproving and 34 per cent approving. The numbers have moved slightly from survey to survey, but the direction has not changed: in Michigan, the president is unpopular, and his disapproval has been running at or near 60 per cent for weeks.

The Senate Race: El-Sayed Pulls Ahead

The Glengariff Group poll, the most recent survey of the Michigan Senate race, found El-Sayed at 50.7 per cent and Rogers at 46.5 per cent, with about 3 per cent of voters undecided. The result is a lead of just over four points for the Democrat, and it is consistent with the broader polling picture: across seven recent United States Senate polls tracked by RealClearPolling, El-Sayed averaged a lead of four and a half percentage points.

The poll’s most striking finding was not the headline margin but the character of the undecided voters. The 3.6 per cent of voters who had not yet chosen a candidate largely said they disapproved of President Donald Trump, by a margin of 77 per cent to 23 per cent. That matters because the Democrat is capturing voters who disapprove of the Republican president by a margin of 83 per cent to 12 per cent, while Rogers is winning the voters who approve of Trump’s job performance by 92.5 per cent to 5.5 per cent. If the undecided voters break in line with their views of the president, they will break for El-Sayed.

“This is all about Donald Trump. He’s getting his wish in urging people to pretend he’s on the ballot: He is the fulcrum point of this election more than abortion was in ’22,” said Glengariff pollster Richard Czuba, referring to the last midterm election. “This is the dividing line in this election. … Rogers’ strategy has to be to reach across that divide and win some of those Trump disapprovers.” The analysis frames the Senate race as a referendum on the president, and the polling suggests that the referendum is going against the Republican candidate.

The survey also found that El-Sayed has taken over Rogers’ lead among independent voters since Glengariff last surveyed the race just before Labor Day, winning 45.5 per cent of self-identified independent voters to 40 per cent for Rogers, with 15 per cent undecided. Rogers had led among independents at nearly 42 per cent to El-Sayed’s 28 per cent just before Labor Day, with 29 per cent undecided. “This is the first time this election that I’ve seen El-Sayed ahead among the independents. This is the sign that I always look for in Michigan in every race. The margin you’re leading by among independents tends to be the margin that you win by,” Czuba said. “This is where Rogers needs to create some distance” from Trump, he added.

The Marist poll told a similar story. It found El-Sayed leading Rogers by 51 per cent to 44 per cent among registered voters, with 3 per cent undecided. In a follow-up question measuring candidate support, only 2 per cent said they might vote differently, while 74 per cent strongly supported their choice and 24 per cent somewhat supported it. El-Sayed had the stronger support among his own backers: 79 per cent strongly supported him, compared with 67 per cent of Rogers’ backers. Among independents, El-Sayed led Rogers by three points, 48 per cent to 45 per cent.

The Governor’s Race and the Generic Ballot

The governor’s race shows a similar pattern. The Marist poll found Democrat Jocelyn Benson leading Republican John James by 53 per cent to 41 per cent among registered voters, with 4 per cent undecided. In the follow-up question, just 3 per cent said they might vote differently, with 66 per cent strongly supporting their choice and 31 per cent somewhat supporting it. Strong support was nearly identical among the two candidates’ backers, at 66 per cent for Benson’s supporters and 65 per cent for James’ supporters. Among independent voters, Benson led James by six points, 48 per cent to 42 per cent.

The Democrats also held a nine-point advantage on the generic congressional ballot, leading 53 per cent to 44 per cent, according to the Marist survey. The generic ballot, which asks voters which party they would support in the election for the House of Representatives, is a broad measure of the political mood, and a nine-point Democratic lead in Michigan would, if it held, point to a difficult night for Republicans in the state.

The Marist survey also found that the president figures prominently in congressional voting decisions. A combined 62 per cent of voters described their congressional vote as primarily related to Trump: 42 per cent said it was mostly a vote against him and 20 per cent said it was mostly a vote for him, while another 37 per cent said he was not much of a factor. The finding underlines how completely the president has come to define the election, even though his name is not on the ballot.

Why Trump Is the Fulcrum

The Michigan polling illustrates a pattern that is visible across the country: the midterm elections have become, in effect, a referendum on the president. Czuba’s description of Trump as the “fulcrum point” of the election captures the dynamic. Voters are not choosing between two candidates on the basis of their individual qualities alone; they are voting for or against the president, and the candidates are, in large part, proxies for that larger judgement.

The pattern is visible in the way the undecided voters break. In the Glengariff survey, the undecided voters disapproved of Trump by 77 per cent to 23 per cent, and the Democrat captured Trump disapprovers by 83 per cent to 12 per cent. The arithmetic is straightforward: if the voters who have not yet decided are, in large part, voters who dislike the president, then the candidate associated with the president is at a disadvantage. Rogers’ challenge, as Czuba put it, is to reach across that divide and win some of those Trump disapprovers, a task that requires him to create distance from a president who remains the dominant figure in his party.

The National Picture: Only Eight States Above Water

The Michigan numbers are part of a national picture that is difficult for the White House. The Civiqs tracker reported by USA Today found Trump with positive approval ratings in just eight states, all of which he carried in the past three presidential elections. His approval remained negative in key battlegrounds such as Texas and Michigan, creating fresh challenges for Republicans as they fight to keep control of Congress.

The tracker found that Trump’s approval was above water in Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming, and nowhere else. In Kentucky, he had a net approval rating of minus 12 points, with 38 per cent approving and 50 per cent disapproving. The findings add to mounting evidence of the president’s political troubles as voters begin casting ballots, and they suggest that the midterm elections will be fought on ground that favours the Democrats in most of the country.

The national polling reinforces the point. The Economist/YouGov survey found the president’s approval at 35 per cent nationally, with 62 per cent disapproving, and it found that only 27 per cent of voters said the country was generally headed in the right direction. On the economy, 31 per cent approved of the president’s handling and 31 per cent approved on inflation, while 23 per cent rated the economy as good or excellent and 60 per cent said the economy was getting worse. The survey was conducted from October 2 to 5 among 1,381 registered voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

What Happens Next

The midterm elections will be held on Tuesday, November 3, and the Michigan races will be among the most closely watched in the country. The Senate race between El-Sayed and Rogers and the governor’s race between Benson and James will help decide the balance of power in Washington and in Lansing, and the polls suggest that both races are leaning toward the Democrats, with the president’s unpopularity as the driving force.

The remaining undecided voters will matter, and the polls suggest that they are, in large part, voters who disapprove of the president. If they break as the polling suggests they will, El-Sayed’s lead will grow. But the polls also carry a warning for the Democrats: the voters who say they only somewhat support a candidate could still shift, and the election is close enough that a late movement could change the outcome.

Source: ClickOnDetroit | WDIV Local 4