China Q3 GDP: Growth Beats Forecasts at 4.5%
The china q3 gdp figures came in stronger than expected on Monday, with the world’s second-largest economy expanding 4.5% from a year earlier in the July-to-September quarter. The reading, released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics, beat the 4.4% forecast in a Reuters poll and improved on the more-than-three-year low of 4.3% recorded in the April-to-June period.
For the first nine months of 2026, the economy grew 4.6% — inside Beijing’s annual growth target range of 4.5% to 5.0%. On a quarterly basis, output rose 1.2%, topping expectations of 1.1% and accelerating from 0.9% in the second quarter.
Exports Lead the Rebound
The pickup was powered by a surging export engine. September exports jumped 36.3% on strong shipments of semiconductors and automobiles, and China’s trade surplus widened more than expected — putting the country on track to surpass last year’s record surplus of nearly $1.2 trillion. For January through September, the surplus stood at $938 billion, according to Nikkei Asia.
The boom comes as Beijing leans on manufacturing and overseas markets, creating what economists call a “two-speed economy”: thriving factory output and exports alongside weak consumption and private investment. Retail sales grew 1.1% in September — the quickest since March — while industrial output expanded 5.5%, the fastest in six months. Property investment, by contrast, fell 20.6% in the first nine months of the year.
Stimulus Rolls Out
Policymakers have expanded support measures to keep the recovery on track. Beijing recently rolled out mortgage subsidies for first-time home buyers and targeted rate cuts, and allocated 550 billion yuan (about $82 billion) in unused local government debt quotas to fund infrastructure investment and emerging industries. Authorities also expanded loan interest subsidies for small private firms and tapped an 800 billion yuan policy-based financing tool to spur infrastructure spending.
The stronger data eases pressure on policymakers to deliver bigger stimulus to hit the annual target — though trade tensions with the European Union are escalating, and a deal with the EU to rein in Chinese hybrid-vehicle shipments could weigh on the booming auto trade.
Source: CNBC